--- title: How to avoid this common home buyer trap description: Waiting for home prices to ‘bottom out’ before buying may seem like a smart strategy but it could work against you. Here are the risks of holding out and hoping for lower prices. image: https://moneyplex.au/hubfs/Blog%201100x733%20buyer%20mistake%202026.jpg --- [Skip to content](https://moneyplex.au/moneyplex-blog/how-to-avoid-this-common-home-buyer-trap#main-content) [![Logo](https://moneyplex.au/hs-fs/hubfs/logo-4.png?width=220&height=40&name=logo-4.png "Logo")](https://moneyplex.au) Call: 1300 648 147 or Book An Appointment - [Get Your Finance Approval Guide](https://moneyplex.au/get-your-finance-approval-guide-1) - Who We Help - [Self-Employed Individuals With Families](https://moneyplex.au/self-employed-individuals-with-families-clone-new) - [Self Employed Professionals & Tradespeople](https://moneyplex.au/self-employed-professionals-and-tradespeople) - [Small Business Owners](https://moneyplex.au/small-business-owners) - [Property Investors And Developers](https://moneyplex.au/property-investors-and-developers) - [Refinancers and Consolidators](https://moneyplex.au/refinancers-and-consolidators) - 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[Business And Asset Finance](https://moneyplex.au/business-and-asset-finance) - [Private Lending](https://moneyplex.au/private-lending) - [Personal Loans](https://moneyplex.au/personal-loans) - [Expert Referral Partners](https://moneyplex.au/expert-referral-partners) - [About](https://moneyplex.au/about) - [Blog](https://moneyplex.au/moneyplex-blog) - [Contact Us](https://moneyplex.au/contact-us-1) - [Contact Us](https://moneyplex.au/contact-us-1) - [Lending Strategy Session](https://moneyplex.au/lending-strategy-session) ![](https://moneyplex.au/hs-fs/hubfs/Blog%201100x733%20buyer%20mistake%202026.jpg?width=1100&height=733&name=Blog%201100x733%20buyer%20mistake%202026.jpg) # How to avoid this common home buyer trap ![MoneyPlex](https://7528315.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hub/7528315/hubfs/raw_assets/public/mV0_d-cms-elevate-theme_hubspot/elevate/images/avatar-placeholder.jpg?width=48&height=48&name=avatar-placeholder.jpg) MoneyPlex July 30, 2026 **Waiting for home prices to ‘bottom out’ before buying may seem like a smart strategy but it could work against you. Here are the risks of holding out and hoping for lower prices.** It’s no secret that some of the heat is coming out of the property market. Home buyers are now under [less pressure to make a rushed decision](https://www.domain.com.au/news/fomo-is-gone-australias-housing-market-remains-in-slowdown-1535434/), and more homes are coming onto the market, giving [buyers greater choice](https://cdn.rea-group.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/16094531/realestatecomau-Market-Snapshot-June-2026.pdf). But holding off and waiting for prices to reach a low point may be a high-risk strategy – and it could work against you. We look at the potential pitfalls of trying to time the market with the aim of buying when prices are lowest. ### **Prices are cooling – not tanking** First, a quick recap of what’s happening in the property market. Home prices are shifting downward or levelling off in some areas, mainly as a result of interest rate pressures, stretched affordability, and tighter investor tax rules. But these are far from ‘fire sale’ conditions. As a guide, June saw values fall in Sydney (down 1.2%), Melbourne (1.0%) and Canberra (0.6%), [Cotality](https://www.cotality.com/au/insights/articles/housing-market-downturn-deepens-as-demand-headwinds-build) data shows. However, prices continued to climb across Brisbane (up 0.3%), Perth (0.7%), Darwin (1.4%) and Hobart (0.6%) as well as regional markets (up 0.3%). In Adelaide values held steady for the month. How home values move in the months ahead is unclear. And frankly, not even the experts agree on this. What we can say is that no one rings a bell to announce that prices have bottomed out. And this is where those who put buying plans on the backburner with the expectation of further price falls can face key risks. It can mean [facing more competition if other buyers pile into the “weak” market](https://www.realestate.com.au/news/buyers-market-trap-why-waiting-for-prices-to-bottom-out-is-mistake/), potentially forcing prices to rise again. It may also mean missing out on a property that ticks all your boxes, just because you think you could get something a bit cheaper in a few months. ### **The risks of trying to outsmart the market** Right now, we are seeing a variety of property price predictions. But past events have shown that forecasts can be inaccurate, sometimes wildly so. In the early days of COVID, for instance, some tipsters suggested [property values could drop by 10%](https://www.api.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/API_Australian-property-market-predictions_200519_v2.pdf), or[even 20%](https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-australia-s-housing-market). In reality, [home prices rose 24.6%](https://www.ahuri.edu.au/sites/default/files/documents/2023-05/PES-399-How-Australian-housing-patterns-changed-during-COVID-the-new-normal.pdf) within two years of the start of the pandemic. Clearly, the situation is very different today. But the basic rule still holds – we usually only know that home prices have reached a low point *after* the event. The thing is, several of the main factors that have helped drive home prices higher in recent times are still in play today. Australia still faces a [shortage of homes for people to live in](https://hia.com.au/our-industry/newsroom/economic-research-and-forecasting/2026/03/a-response-to-claims-that-australia-has-enough-homes?srsltid=AfmBOoqozP_5wyrP88GhhQTzlN3Odew-zYWa8B9vsoeq7Ox9UbAsekfb). And our [population continues to grow](https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/australias-population-15-december-2025). The upshot is that holding out with the aim of buying when prices are at their lowest may sound like a sensible strategy. But it’s a lot easier said than done, and it often relies more on good luck than good timing. ### **Focus on what you can control** The past five years have seen home prices nationally [increase by more than 34%](https://www.proptrack.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/PropTrack-Home-Price-Index-June-2026.pdf). Those sorts of long term gains could eclipse the short term savings of today’s softer market. So, instead of trying to second guess the market, it can be worth focusing on what you can control – and that’s your own home buying plans. As mentioned, today’s market offers improved choice, and sellers who may be [more open to negotiating on price](https://discover.cotality.com/hubfs/441896203/AU-Monthly-Housing-Chart-Pack-July-2026.pdf). Both are a plus for home buyers. Talk to us today. You could be home loan-ready right now, and that could see you benefit from today’s more buyer-friendly market. **Disclaimer:** The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to your circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent. ## Share this post [mailto:https%3A%2F%2Fmoneyplex.au%2Fmoneyplex-blog%2Fhow-to-avoid-this-common-home-buyer-trap](mailto:https%3A%2F%2Fmoneyplex.au%2Fmoneyplex-blog%2Fhow-to-avoid-this-common-home-buyer-trap) ## Keep reading ### [![](https://moneyplex.au/hs-fs/hubfs/Blog%201100x733%20listings%20spike%202026.jpg?width=1100&height=733&name=Blog%201100x733%20listings%20spike%202026.jpg) Great news for buyers: property listings spike, FOMO dials down](https://moneyplex.au/moneyplex-blog/great-news-for-buyers-property-listings-spike-fomo-dials-down) ### [![](https://moneyplex.au/hs-fs/hubfs/Blog%201100x733%20rates%20competition%202026.jpg?width=1100&height=733&name=Blog%201100x733%20rates%20competition%202026.jpg) Lenders cut rates as competition heats up](https://moneyplex.au/moneyplex-blog/lenders-cut-rates-as-competition-heats-up) [![logo](https://moneyplex.au/hs-fs/hubfs/logo-1.png?width=240&height=44&name=logo-1.png "logo")](https://moneyplex.au) Call:1300 648 147 - [Home](https://moneyplex.au) - [About MoneyPlex](https://moneyplex.au/about) - [Lending Strategy Session](https://moneyplex.au/lending-strategy-session) - [Compliments & Concerns](https://moneyplex.au/compliments-concerns) - [Contact Us](https://moneyplex.au/contact-us-1) MONEYPLEX PTY LTD (ACN: 656 436 627) is a corporate credit representative (Representative Number 541146) of QED CREDIT SERVICES PTY LTD (Australian Credit Licence 387856). \*The amount of money we may be able to save you depends on your personal financial situation. 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